The vegie patch early this morning.

Notes from Xanadu

The vegetables are thriving with the self-sown tomatoes fruiting prolifically. Basil in pots (to the left) has survived the unidentified muncher and is close to picking. We enjoyed a small harvest of snow peas and the rocket is almost eaten into control (by us).

Climate Change

I have recommended the Claude Levi-Strauss podcast below for two reasons:

1. It is critical to take the long view of any phenomenon; and,
2. When we adopt a position, the data will flow in endlessly to support that position.

What are the issues in ‘climate change’?

• The world climate is getting hotter.
• Aircraft flights are major contributors to the ‘greenhouse’ effect.
• Coal fired power plants are the devil in the mix of emitting activities.
• The polar ice is melting and Pacific Islanders will become climate change refugees.
• We must cut our CO₂ emissions drastically to avoid extinction of ourselves and other species.
• Overpopulation

The world climate

Is it getting hotter? There is so much conflicting data fuelling the new religion, so much vitriol flung at the various players, that the debate has moved from discussion to hatred and violence. This is reminiscent to my understanding of the Inquisition with anyone proposing a pause or an alternative view to the ‘climate change’ priesthood being condemned. I am unable determine from the many summary data sets on temperature what is happening.

Aircraft

My reading of the data is that the combination of all flights contributes 3 per cent of CO₂ emissions. The industry is making major improvements to lessen this minor contribution through more efficient planes and developing bio-fuels. A pity then that airport curfews force operators to fly at non-optimal times on non-optimal routes.

Coal fired power stations

The operators admit that coal-fired electricity generation is polluting. But without this cheap generation, we would probably suffer a decline in living standards. Alternative sources such as hydro, wind, tidal, geo-thermal and solar are expensive to develop and operate. Wind power in Europe is expensive. Geo-sequestration of CO₂ emissions is still experimental. Nuclear has its enemies. Water sources for hydro are diminishing.

Polar ice

I cannot determine if the ice is, or is not, melting because I am deluged with conflicting data and opinion pieces (usually accompanied by a lone polar bear on a sliver of ice).

Cutting CO₂ emissions

As with the ‘Ice’, I cannot determine if CO₂ emissions are contributing to a ‘global warming’ that may, or may not, be occurring. Hence the value of the Levi-Strauss position. If we take a geological perspective, the current warming or non-warming is but a blip in time and where current evidence demonstrates that much higher CO₂ values contributed to a richer environmental responses.

Overpopulation

As the world population increases so does the extraction of earth’s resources. However, we see Europe with a declining ‘European’ population, being re-settled with migrants, which generates quite fierce unrest sometimes causing riots. ‘Western’ people are aging and require the energy coming from in-migration to maintain their lifestyle, yet this appears to unrecognized and I read of anti-Muslim activities when these are the very people willing to participate in our society.

The People’s Republic of China has a depopulation problem. Due to the success of the ‘one child policy’ and the antipathy to female children, China is now experiencing an aging and male dominated population. Marriageable, fecund women are in short supply.

War, corruption and lack of education are major causes of migration and it’s ensuing hostility, rabidly displayed in the host destinations. I am surprised that our obligations to care for our fellow people has become so diminished that we vilify families seeking survival and a better life for their children.

What is missing?

What is missing from the ‘debate’ is the contribution of land clearing; methane, agri-business, and recognising the impact climate warming supporters have smothering rational exploration of the phenomenon. One irrational example of limiting carbon emissions is the Sydney Airport curfew limiting jet flights to 06:00 and 23:00 forcing early flights to fly in circles waiting for 06:00, wasting fuel.

The benefits

The positive outcome of the ‘global warming’ religion is that we are all aware of our heavy carbon footprint.

On the micro-level, we drive less, cycle more, use public transport, grow some of our food and have an ecologically rich yard. The design of our house (1880s) requires no air-conditioning and we have wood fires in the winter (now considered less carbon emitting than other forms of heating). We are moving to install water tanks, even though the economics of capturing our run-off is negative.

On the macro-level, I see a huge increase in cycling, many more trees in inner-western Sydney, increased fauna, and more discussion on limiting the carbon footprint. The surge to green shopping bags is an example of how willing we are to minimize our footprint.

Conclusion

That we recognise we need a much gentler footprint is readily acknowledged by all. What is also required is co-operative analysis and thinking to replace the violence and malevolence.

Today’s Podcast

“A tribute to Claude Levi-Strauss”, The Philosopher’s Zone, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/philosopherszone/stories/2009/2765201.htm

Chives flowering

Collecting the recyclables in Marrickville

garbage collection

Today

I have been working on the ‘cook book’ and have assembled four chapters and sixty recipes. Watching the events unfold in Copenhagen, I felt this was a more rewarding activity than sorting through the confusion of climate change.

Today’s Podcast

“On road cycling”, BackgroundBriefing, 6 December, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2009/2758349.htm

With a dramatic increase in cycling, comes a plethora of new safety issues on the roads. Doctors, politicians, planners and cyclists agree it will mean changing the way we design, govern and use our roads.

Coast Banksia (Banksia integrifolia)

With so much gloom about our imminent extinction from CO₂ emissions I thought we should view this splendid Banksia integrifolia.

Waiting for the train

Circular Quay

Climate Change

Ian Plimer, (2009), Heaven and Earth: Global Warming – The Missing Science, Connor Court Publishing

I bought it yesterday and read the Introduction and the final chapter. His commentary has firmed up my thinking – we shouldn’t rush into capping CO₂ and his reasoning makes sense.

Reading the Wikipedia article, I was intrigued by the theme; Plimer’s supporters were ‘right-wing’, his critics, sensible, and thorough in picking out his many mistakes. And his publisher “…has a history of publishing books on “culture, justice and religion”, including many books on Christianity and Catholicism in particular.”  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_and_Earth_%28book%29) .

I remember listening to two reviews on the ABC Science Show, which I thought were irrational. Unfortunately I missed hearing Ian Plimer’s response but have read the transcript.

“Heaven + Earth – review by David Karoly”, Science Show,13-June-2009, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2009/2593166.htm

“Heaven + Earth – review by Malcolm Walter” Science Show, 6-June-2009, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2009/2586947.htm

“Human activity and climate change”, Science Show 30 June 2007.
Ian Plimer questions the human role in climate change. http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2007/1965996.htm

I would like him to update the situation since Climategate, which appears to support his conclusions. Anyone confused by ‘climate change’ should look at this book.

And this report which is topical:

“Renewable energy on the brink”, The 7:30 Report, 8 December, http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2009/s2765610.htm

A plunge in the spot market price for renewable energy this year has brought many wind-farming and bio-fuel projects to the brink of collapse. One such project is a northern New South Wales scheme turning sugar cane waste into electricity. New South Wales Sugar warns a flaw in the Federal Government’s renewable energy program could destroy the fledgling industry, and Climate Change Minister Senator Penny Wong has agreed to a review.

Who would have thought that the ‘market’ would be so horrible to renewable energy when we are facing extinction? Minister Wong will review, and what?

Today’s Podcast

This is revelatory.

“Negotiating the Kyoto Protocol”, RearVision, 9 December, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/rearvision/stories/2009/2764264.htm

As negotiators in Copenhagen try to reach a binding agreement on carbon cuts, Rear Vision revisits the negotiations that produced the first legally binding international agreement on global warming, the Kyoto Protocol. First broadcast 2nd December 2007

Contributing to climate change?

Waiting for the train

Wynyard

Climate Change Confusion

The Climate Change debate continues with these interesting contradictions. I listen too and read the debates, inter-changes and findings and as a reasonably aware lay-person have moved from confusion to interest: we are participating in a unique power struggle as scientists, governments, religions, challenge each other and regularly denigrate each others’ findings. These four citations demonstrate how little is known about a phenomenon that may turn out to be fiction.

“The Climate Connection-Episode 5”, BBC World Service, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0055j94

“Worldwide, buildings emit 40 to 50 per cent of global carbon emissions.”

“Coal boss takes climate solutions to Copenhagen”, ABCNews, 9 December, http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765656.htm

Mr Hillman made the suggestion as he prepared to depart for Copenhagen. The burning of coal is responsible for 40 per cent of global emissions but, despite that, Australia is planning to double its coal exports by 2030.

We now see polluters competing for the most CO2 emissions. This could possibly be advanced notice of the need for taxpayer dollars to remediate the pollution sources.

“Last decade warmest on record”, ABCNews, 9 December, http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/09/2765726.htm

“The decade 2000-2009 is very likely to be the warmest on record, warmer than the 1990s, which were in turn warmer than the 1980s,” WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud said. Most of these trends are consistent with long-term forecasts by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which predicts that average global temperatures will rise by up to 6.4 degrees Celsius unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced.

Michael Asten, “Climate claims fail science test”, The Australian, 9 December, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/climate-claims-fail-science-test/story-e6frg6zo-1225808398627

Results released this year suggest that the degree of scientific certainty falls short of that desirable before we set binding targets and dollar values on carbon emissions. Indeed, Tim Flannery, chairman of the Copenhagen Climate Council admitted that: “We can’t pretend we have perfect knowledge: we don’t.” … two recent results published by top scientists cast doubt on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s theory about the link between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming.

Paul Pearson of Cardiff University … unraveled records of atmosphere, temperature and ice-cap formation 33.6 million years ago, when the Earth cooled from a greenhouse without ice caps, into something quite similar to our present day. First the greenhouse atmosphere pre-cooling contained a CO2 concentration of 900 parts per million by volume, or more than three times that of the Earth in pre-industrial days. We can’t be sure what triggered the Earth to cool despite, or because of, its changing green-house atmospheric blanket, but once it did, cycles of ice cap formation and glaciation commenced, apparently governed by the same variations in the Earth’s orbit that govern the ice ages of the past million years.

Second, while the cooling of the Earth took place over a time-span of around 200,000 years, the atmospheric CO2 first dropped in association with the cooling, then rose to around 1100ppmv and remained high for 200,000 years while the Earth cooled further and remained in its new ice ages cycle.

If the Earth started a cycle of ice ages 33.6 million years ago while having its very carbon-rich atmosphere, and if the Earth showed cycles of ice-age activity when atmospheric CO2 was four times the level that it was in humankind’s pre-industrial times, what new information must we incorporate into our present climate models?

So are we justified in concluding that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 is not the only or major driver of current climate change? And if so, how should we re-shape our ETS legislation? I don’t know the answer to these questions, but as Nobel prize winning physicist Richard Feynman observed: “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

Michael Asten is a professorial fellow in the school of geosciences at Monash University, Melbourne.

This confusion urges me to buy Ian Plimer’s, Heaven and earth: global warming — the missing science. I need another viewpoint.

The Painted Desert, Arizona.

The Painted Desert is a broad area of badlands located in Northern Arizona in the United States. The desert stretches from the Grand Canyon National Park into the Petrified Forest National Park.

Food Miles – Revisited

As happens on the internet, I came across the writings of Bill McKibben; first through The New York Review of Books and then via his website, http://www.billmckibben.com/index.html. His message on global warming has that strong religious theme that Freeman Dyson wrote of (see yesterdays comment on Climate Change). He is unrelenting in his demands to substitute carbon emissions with all forms of alternative energy, and is so focused on this that land degradation, water shortages, methane and other climate changing factors appear to be ignored. But I need to read more deeply of this person.

A sidebar on his website has:

Local products support local economies. Buying products from local growers, farmers and food artisans keeps money in the community, supporting the local economy.

Which links to:

Local Economies
For a hundred years we’ve been steadily extending the supply lines of our economy, becoming ever more globalized. But some have begun to question that trend, and even to form the foundations of a newer, more local economy. The main reasons are two-fold: our ever-growing globe-spanning economy is increasingly vulnerable to the ecological disruption it is causing, with global warming the prime example; and despite record affluence Americans report ever-growing feelings of disconnection and loss of community, trends that can only be reversed if we manage to rebuild local institutions that draw people together.

To wit, the farmer’s market: energy-efficient local food, and the average shopper has ten times as many conversations as a supermarket shopper. No wonder they’re the fastest-growing part of our food economy. Now we need to get going on other sectors too.

No doubt, supporting local communities keeps money in the community. But as Issues in food miles and carbon labeling discussed on 5 December points out:

Empirical evidence indicates that food miles is an unreliable indicator of carbon emissions in the food supply chain. For example, in 2006 a major study on the validity of food miles found that New Zealand is substantially more energy efficient, and less carbon intensive, than UK producers in producing and delivering lamb and dairy products to the UK market. Importantly, while food miles may have intuitive appeal among some consumers, the food miles concept results in less informed consumption choices and does not reflect the carbon emissions embodied in many products

I don’t want ten more conversations than I have in my supermarket; I am there to buy supplies not socialize. I wonder if more of his writing is simply quasi-religious rhetoric? More reading will reveal his data and agenda.

Today’s Newspaper-Useful Information

This caught my attention – wind and solar generated electricity may not be the solution to replacing the demon ‘coal’..

Alvaro Vargas Llosa, “Taking the Wind Out of Energy”, 2 December, Washington Post Writers Group, http://www.postwritersgroup.com/archives/varg091202.htm

A few months ago, a study by Gabriel Calzada of King Juan Carlos University caused an international uproar when it disclosed that each green job was costing Spanish taxpayers between 540,000 and 1 million euros, and entailed 2.2 jobs lost or not created because of the misallocation of capital. Despite 43 billion euros in subsidies, solar energy is still not a major component of the energy matrix, and Spain has not complied with the Kyoto Protocol on climate change.

Climate Change

An informative series of programmes, but only available for several more days.

“The Climate Connection”, BBC World Service, http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/2009/11/091118_climate_connection_listing.shtml

The Climate Connection follows five young people as they explore an issue that they believe is at the centre of the climate change debate.
In each programme one person from a different part of the world explores potential solutions to what they think is causing the problem – meeting a range of experts to find out if their ideas really do stand up to scrutiny.

Zygocactus on the side fence

After years of hanging on the side fence, this burst into bloom last week. More information on http://www.burkesbackyard.com.au/factsheets/Flowering-Plants-and-Shrubs/Zygocactus/916

Climate Change

I came across this review commenting on two relevant books and quote the last three paragraphs.

Freeman Dyson, “The Question of Global Warming”, New York Review of Books, Volume 55, Number 10 · June 12, 2008, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21494

All the books that I have seen about the science and economics of global warming, including the two books under review, miss the main point. The main point is religious rather than scientific. There is a worldwide secular religion which we may call environmentalism, holding that we are stewards of the earth, that despoiling the planet with waste products of our luxurious living is a sin, and that the path of righteousness is to live as frugally as possible. The ethics of environmentalism are being taught to children in kindergartens, schools, and colleges all over the world.

Environmentalism has replaced socialism as the leading secular religion. And the ethics of environmentalism are fundamentally sound. Scientists and economists can agree with Buddhist monks and Christian activists that ruthless destruction of natural habitats is evil and careful preservation of birds and butterflies is good. The worldwide community of environmentalists—most of whom are not scientists—holds the moral high ground, and is guiding human societies toward a hopeful future. Environmentalism, as a religion of hope and respect for nature, is here to stay. This is a religion that we can all share, whether or not we believe that global warming is harmful.

Unfortunately, some members of the environmental movement have also adopted as an article of faith the belief that global warming is the greatest threat to the ecology of our planet. That is one reason why the arguments about global warming have become bitter and passionate. Much of the public has come to believe that anyone who is skeptical about the dangers of global warming is an enemy of the environment. The skeptics now have the difficult task of convincing the public that the opposite is true. Many of the skeptics are passionate environmentalists. They are horrified to see the obsession with global warming distracting public attention from what they see as more serious and more immediate dangers to the planet, including problems of nuclear weaponry, environmental degradation, and social injustice. Whether they turn out to be right or wrong, their arguments on these issues deserve to be heard.

Freeman Dyson is a legendary mathematician-physicist and looking through the references in the New York Review of Books, he writes on a wide range of interests. These three paragraphs of his review offer an accurate summary of the passions aroused by the new religion. On the 29 November, I commented on the sophisticated anti-coal activities of Climate Camp and the equally sophisticated pro-coal media – both examples of Dyson’s commentary.

Today’s SMH and The Australian have pages devoted to Copenhagen, Climate Change, Rudd’s flawed ETS legislation, Abbot’s common-sense stance and the Liberal by-election victories – all linked to the new religion.

Today’s Podcast

“Ross Garnaut: Climate change and national, public, and private interests”, ForaRadio, 2 December, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/foraradio/stories/2009/2752422.htm

As world leaders prepare to meet next week for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Professor Ross Garnaut revisits his influential climate change review.

Informative summary of his views and as usual with Garnaut, dry but makes sense.